2007 Phillies Preview

2007 Phillies Preview

Entering my third year as a Phillies fan, excitement surrounding the team is at a high not seen for a long time. Shortstop Jimmy Rollins has said the Phillies are the "team to beat in the NL East this year." Here is my position by position breakdown headed into the 2007 season.

Note: The bulk of this was written after the first two games - two games blown by the bullpen in extra innings.

First Base: Controlled by reigning NL MVP Ryan Howard. Howard is obviously the team's best power hitter and fan favorite. His defense still needs some work, but he can't be perfect in every area. He batted cleanup last year, but has moved to third in the order for 2007. Not a move I am in total agreement with, though they seem to have switched him back to 4th now. Probably won't put up the same numbers as last year, but Howard will have another monster year, despite his slow start. GRADE A

Second Base: Chase Utley could have been the Phillies MVP last year. He is the best hitting second baseman in all of baseball and an All-Star for years to come. He plays average defense, but makes the plays he has to. Probably the Phillie you would most want up to bat in a clutch situation. GRADE A

Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins is probably the leader of the team, and put a bullseye on the team and himself when he declared in the off-season that the Phillies "are the team to beat in the NL East." Rollins is an outstanding defender. Some question whether or not he is a good leadoff hitter, but he is the best they have to do the job. He is also a clutch player who has a knack for coming up with big stolen bases. GRADE A-

Third Base: Wes Helms was signed to be the everyday third baseman. He started five times there last year for the Marlins. He is suspect at best on defense, but should provide a defensive boost over the man who played third for most of last season, David Bell. Abraham Nunez will come in to takeover for defensive in close games in the late innings. Backup Greg Dobbs will also see some time here. The Phillies will likely go with the hottest bat throughout the season. GRADE C

Left Field: To put it nicely, Pat Burrell is not a fan favorite. Burrell has a well earned reputation for coming up empty when it matters the most and his range in the outfield can only be described as terrible. Every time he makes an out, he is booed. He was shopped around all winter, but no other team wants want him at $13 million a year; in fact most teams probably wouldn't want him for half of that. Two teams did show interest, but Burrell used his power to veto the trades, which is surprising, considering he has almost no support in Philly. He has to have a better year than he did last year in the 5 slot in the batting order for this team to go deep. GRADE C

Center Field: Aaron Rowand will also be fondly remembered for his face first catch against the wall last year when he broke his nose. However, Rowand has not been the hitter the Phillies thought they were getting when they acquired him prior to the 2006 season from the White Sox. He is above average in the outfield. GRADE B-

Right Field: Coupled with the other two, the speedy ShaneVictorino as the everyday right fielder makes the Phillies outfield one of the lightest in all of the National League. Victorino has a cannon in right and teams are leery of running on him on balls hit his way. Can he be an everyday player is the big question here. I think he can. GRADE B-

Catcher: The team decided not to resign Mike Lieberthal, and went after Rangers catcher Rod Barajas, a move I am skeptical of - I think the money could have been better spent. The backup is Carlos Ruiz, who I have just as much confidence in. Neither one strikes particular fear into the opponents hitting wise, but both are solid behind the plate. GRADE C+

Bench: Right now the reserves are: Dobbs, Nunez, Jayson Werth, Michael Bourn (a speedy OF), and Ruiz. An average bench, but probably better than most NL teams. I would like to see someone with more speed added to the roster for late game situations. Last year's late season callup, Chris Coste is currently on the DL, but there might not be a space for him when he does come back. Werth, a right handed batter, could be a productive 4th outfielder if Burrell struggles. Werth has not been able to stay healthy in his career. GRADE B

Starting Rotation: This is an area that at least on paper has been improved from last year. Brett Myers was the Opening Day starter, and I look for him to have a monster year. Cole Hamels came up midway through last year and he is going to be a dominate pitcher for years to come in Philadelphia if he can stay healthy. Freddy Garcia was acquired from the White Sox. The big question with him is fastball velocity. Baseball folks are whispering that he has lost some zip on that pitch. Jamie Moyer, who was brought to the team via trade last August is a very solid #4 man who still has a lot left to offer, both on the mound and mentoring the young pitchers of the Phils. Adam Eaton rounds out the rotation. Eaton has never been able to stay off the DL and frankly I think this was wasted money. He looked dreadful in Spring Training. Better than last year, but still some question mark with this bunch. GRADE B

Bullpen: The biggest question mark on the team. Ryan Madson will be the set-up man, and he has looked great in the spring (but blew the game on Opening Day in extra innings and helped the downfall in Game 2). He won't be a starter this year, as that experiment has ended for the best. Geoff Geary and Antonio Alfonseca will be the right handers that work the 6th and 7th inning. Matt Smith will be the main situational lefty. Former starter Jon Lieber will also start the year in the bullpen (and the DL), but he will either be traded for bullpen help or moved back to the rotation if there is an injury before long. The bullpen is the key - they blew a ton of games for the starters last year. GRADE C

Closer: Tom Gordon staying healthy is a big key to the season. He will not pitch 3 days in a row this season. He has looked good in Spring Training. Gordon allows to many runners for my liking, but he usually gets the job done. I am not sure he has ever had a 1-2-3 inning. As I was typing this, he blew the save in the second game of this season. GRADE C+

Manager: A big year for manager Charlie Manuel. It is playoffs or bust this year, and Manuel is in the final year of his contract. Never a fan favorite in Philadelphia, Manuel has made some moves that have not pleased the fans, which is surprising because he is the best manager in baseball. GRADE A+

Broadcasting: In the off-season, the team fired lead radio play by play man Scott Graham, in a move that was very disturbing to me, since Graham is the only "Voice of the Phillies" I have ever known - through listening to all games on the internet. The new man in the booth is former Phil Gary Matthews, aka The Sarge. Apparently, The Sarge didn't have to audition, as he sounds like he is speaking into a napkin at the lowest voice level possible. The rest of the radio team is rounded out by the very bland Scott Franzke (who only did the 5th and 6th innings and pre and postgame last year) and former pitcher Larry Andersen, who many people don't care for, but I like and think is funny. TV will be held down by the legendary Harry Kalas (does voice over work for NFL Films and Thursday Night Football) and Chris Wheeler, Kalas's mortal enemy. The two TV men legitimately hate each others guts. Good times. GRADE D

Prediction: 91-71, first place in the NL East.

2006 Phillies Wrap

Tough one to write, because I thought it would be a Playoff Preview. But just like many years, the Phillies collapsed the last week of the season and disappointed all of their fans. It wasn't as bad as last year, but I don't think it will set in until my playoff tickets come in the mail this week and I won't be able to use them. (Note: This has now happened already).

Pat Gillick, the GM, made some good moves down the stretch to try and get this team in position to win the Wild Card. However, he was not able to overcome his poor first off-season with the team. He acquired stiffs Alex Gonzalez (retired in May), Abraham Nunez (batted consistently around .200), Arthur Rhodes (a deplorable arm in the bullpen), Ryan Franklin (a washed up steroid user who cost the team at least 5 games personally), and Sal Fasano (a bad backup catcher).

So, here goes. This is more for my own good than anything else:

First Base - Ryan Howard should be the MVP this year and for many ahead. He is going to be great for years to come in a Phillies uniform. His defense could improve a bit, but he can't be perfect in every aspect. He is exactly what baseball needs right now. He also won the homerun derby in Pittsburgh.

Second Base - Chase Utley was a real streaky hitter, but along with Howard, will be the centerpiece of the franchise for the foreseeable future. His defense was downright bad at times, and he needs to take some steps to get better, which I am sure he will. He is emerging at the leader of the team.

Third Base - David Bell got dumped off on the Brewers mid-year, which was good for both parties. Abraham Nunez filled in after that and played good defense, while his hitting remained poor. He will not be back next year, or at least he shouldn't be. Actually, I think he is under contract.

Shortstop - Jimmy Rollins rode into the year with a 36 game hitting streak, which was ended in Game 2 this year. Then he went into a major funk. Rollins came around and some huge hits down the stretch and played a great shortstop. The team will not have to evaluate whether or not he remains as the leadoff hitter. Here is betting he will.

Left Field - A tough year for Pat Burrell, who was hampered by a bad foot all season. That did not affect him in his quest to lead the league in called third strikes or his poor hitting with runners in scoring position. Burrell started the season batting cleanup and ended up hitting sixth on a semi-regular basis. The fans are not too fond of Burrell, and it would be better for everyone involved if he played elsewhere next year. Problem is that Burrell has refused to waive his no-trade clause and no team is dumb enough to take him and his big contract without the Phils paying for most of it. He would make a perfect DH in the AL when he is healthy. I want to like Pat, but it is tough.

Center Field - Aaron Rowand was the starting centerfielder for most of the year when he was not hurt. Rowand just didn't hit enough. Shane "The Flyin' Hawaiian" Victorino did a great job filling in for him - and I don't see room on the team or the starting lineup for both of them next year. One has to go, and it probably won't be Shane. Nothing against Rowand, but Shane fits into the lineup much better. It is possible that Rowand takes over in left or right, but I don't like that idea.

Right Field - Bobby Abreu was traded at midseason and then David Dellucci took over on basically an everyday basis, except against tough left handers. Dellucci was in a huge slump for the last month of the season, and he is not the world's best rightfielder defensively. He is a free agent, and I don't see him back next year. It could be Jeff Conine, a late August acquisition who takes over the starting role in RF next year. Personally, I would like to see someone totally new out there.

Catcher - Mike Lieberthal, the longest tenured athlete in Philadelphia, was injured much of the year. He had a decent time at the plate the second time he came back. He will almost for sure not be back next year. Sal Fasano was not a good backup and was released. Carlos Ruiz came up from Triple A and showed a lot of potential. He is likely the starting catcher in 2007. Fan favorite Chris Coste had a very good rookie year and will probably split time with Ruiz. He provided a spark to the team.

Starting Pitching - Cole Hamels is going to anchor the rotation for years to come, barring injuries, a big "if" with him. He is the real deal. Brett Myers became more consistent this year. He will likely be the Opening Day starter on April 2 vs. Atlanta. Jon Lieber had an up and down year, mostly down, but he pitched pretty well down the stretch. He might be traded if anyone is willing to take on his contract. Fine with me. Randy Wolf came back from Tommy John Surgery in late June and was serviceable. He may be back - the Phillies invested in all of his rehab, and he is a fan favorite. Jamie Moyer came in a late August trade and was solid. He may or may not be back. Either he or Wolf will be, but not both. Others who started this year included the up and down Ryan Madson, Cory Lidle (traded to NYY) the awful Gavin Floyd, Scott Matheison (who will have the same Tommy John surgery), Eude Brito, and Adam Benero. The starting pitching was terrible the first 3 and a half months, and it seemed the Phils were always down early in games. Their resurgence was due to better starting pitching. I like the look of the rotation for next year.

Bullpen - As with most teams, the bullpen needs some work. Tom Gordon was a solid closer, but he really tired and faltered down the stretch. Arthur Rhodes was awful, and thankfully he got hurt in late August. Matt Smith was called up in September and proved to be a solid lefty. He will be back. Madson, just as he was as a starter, was way too inconsistent. Ryan Franklin was a disaster. Aaron Fultz was Aaron Fultz and may not be here next year. Geoff Geary was mostly good, he was a pleasant surprise. Rick White proved to be a solid June pick up off the waiver wire. I am indifferent on him. Julio Santana was hurt and never really pitched. I didn't see enough of Brian Sanches or Fabio Castro to get a feeling on them.


Coaching - Charlie Manuel will be back in 2007, the last year of his three deal. I think he has earned a third year, and should get some votes for NL Manager of the Year. His coaches Marc Bombard, Bill Dancy, and Gary Varsho got the ax. The team will bring in new coaches who emphasize fundamentals, which has lacked at times the last two seasons.

All in all, I see a lot of hope for next year. This team just has to avoid the plague of getting off to a bad start and digging themselves a big hole. They need one more consistent starter, another set up man, and a 3B who can hit. Bonus points if that guy is a right hander who can protect Ryan Howard.

5 Greatest Moments of the 2006 Season

5). Jimmy Rollins extends his hitting streak to 37 with a hit in his last at bat on Opening Day. The streak ended at 38 on April 5.

4). May 8: Aaron Rowand makes the catch of the year in MLB, running face first into the centerfield wall, saving the game, and landing himself on the DL in the process. Rowand forever gained the admiration of Phillies fans for the catch.

3). Bobby Abreu hits a game winning walk-off HR in the first game of the doubleheader on April 9, giving the Phils their first win of 2006.

2.) In the 14th inning, Jimmy Rollins hits a 2 run triple that propels the team to a win a game they had to have, and they ended up beating Washington 8-7 on September 27.

1.) Ryan Howard hits a 3 run HR (#58) to propel Philadelphia to a 5-2 victory over Florida on September 22 in front of a sold out Citizens Bank Park crowd that was in a frenzy for the entire game.

5 Lowlights of the 2006 Season

5). On the cold, rainy night of April 21, the Phils fall to the Florida Marlins 4-3, continuing their lackluster April. This would not have made the list except for the fact that I was in attendance.

4.) Ryan Franklin throws a ball away in the 9th inning on May 16 at Milwaukee, ending the team's long winning streak and helping to start a 5 game losing streak - including two more one run losses in Milwaukee.

3.) June 22. Brett Myers is arrested for allegedly hitting his wife outside of a Boston hotel. Myers missed three starts the team really needed when they were playing horrible.

2.) On August 13, the team battled back to send the game to extras against the Reds (who were leading the Wild Card at the time). They then let the game slip away in the 11th . It was a painful loss after a great win in Friday and a brutal loss the night before.

1). At 2:07 AM on Thursday morning, Friday September 29, they lost to Washington 3-1, managing only 5 hits. The game was delayed over 4 hours by rain, and it was stupid the game ever started in the first place. The loss didn't mathematically eliminate them from the playoffs, but in all reality it did.

2007 Prediction: World Series Champions

Phillies 2006 Breakdown

"The strong have to survive. Now we have to find a way to survive."
-Phillies closer Tom "Flash" Gordon

Editor's note: I started this last week, but finished it Monday after the Phillies lost 8-7 in 12 innings, after coming back from 6-0, taking the lead 7-6 in the 12th, then losing 8-7 in the same inning. I have a feeling Monday may take the remaining air out of this team. I also don't really expect anyone to read this, it is more for my own psychological reasons that I need to get out my frustrations this way instead of causing damage to things by me when I get mad about the games.

After losing 2 of 3 to the Yankees, and wrapping up a miserable 2-7 homestand, the Phillies find themselves at 35-37 (now 35-40), somehow 2nd place in the NL East. Right now my hopeful prediction of the Phils winning the NL is not looking too good. I have decided to waste my time and find out why not with a team breakdown:

First Base: There has been no sophomore slump for Ryan Howard, reigning NL Rookie of the Year. Howard currently leads the league in HR and RBI. He made Jim Thome (current AL HR leader) expendable. It would have been nice to keep Thome, but one had to go, and it was not going to be the younger, less paid, fan favorite Howard. The negative has been Howard's defense at first. It has been downright bad. But you have to live with that for his bat. He would be a perfect DH in the AL.
GRADE: B+

Second Base: Chase Utley is already a star and will be one for years to come. Utley is going through a bit of a slump right now, but he is a great hitter for the Phillies. His defense is above average as well. It looks like Utley will start for the NL in the All-Star Game (This year the mid-summer classic "still counts.")
GRADE B+

Third Base: David Bell is by all accounts a good guy and he always gives it his all. But he is way overpaid, not that good of a hitter, and not that good at third base. His contract is up at the end of the year, and he will not be back next year. He is a favorite target of the Philadelphia boos. His grade would be lower, but he provided me with my best memory of last season, his game winning HR to beat the Reds last September and keep the season alive.
GRADE D+

Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins was the talk of baseball in the off-season as he carried his 36 game hitting streak into this year. Simply put, Rollins is not a good leadoff hitter. He doesn't get on base enough, doesn't bunt enough, he doesn't move runners over, and he makes too many mistakes on the basepaths. He is good on defense, but when he is scuffling, he is a weight around the team at the top of the order. He is not an ideal leadoff hitter, but the Phillies have no one to turn to at the top of the lineup card.
GRADE C

Catcher: Mike Lieberthal, the Phillies high priced, low on talent, but good guy catcher has been hurt most of the year. Filling in for him has been mostly Sal Fasano, a career journeyman. After watching Fasano all year, I know why now. 33 year old rookie Chris Coste has been catching some as well, and there is a reason it took him so long to reach the majors. Lieberthal will be gone next year as likely Phillies AAA Catcher Carlos Ruiz will take his place next year.
GRADE D

Left Field: Pat Burrell is about the least clutch player in baseball and he can't field well because of his bad foot. Also, I have heard many reports that he is about the most unpleasant guy off the field. His clutch hitting stats: 2 for 41 with RISP and two hours. That is downright bad. Strangely enough, he is my favorite player on the team behind Utley and Howard.
GRADE C

Center Field: Aaron Rowand forever won the admiration of Phils fans with his face first into the wall catch against the Mets on May 9. Since he has come back, he has done almost nothing, and at this point is no better than the Lofton / Michaels platoon of 2005. He has to pick up his batting average. I hate to write bad things about him, but I call them as I see them.
GRADE C+

Rright Field: Bobby Abreu has been a walk machine; he leads the NL in walks. He does his job offensively, but his defensive lapses this year have come at the worst times and have killed this team at times. He is often criticized for a lack of hustle as well, which sometimes seems legitimate, at other times not. Abreu is the center of many trade rumors, and I would not be the least bit surprised to see him dealt soon. Abreu also refuses to bat anywhere except 3rd, which can cause problems.
GRADE B-

Starting Pitchers: They have been awful. The "ace of the staff," John Lieber has been terrible and he is hurt now. Brett Myers has been the most consistent, but he has some other problems to deal with now, and won't be back until at least after the All-Star break. Cory Lidle has been below average, which is what he is. Ryan Madson has been bad as both a starter and a reliever. Prized prospect Gavin Floyd was horrible and got shipped back to the minors. Other prized prospect (probably more so than Floyd) Cole Hamels has been inconsistent, but he has shown some promise. Rarely do any of them ever make it out of the 6th inning or get a win for that matter. Randy Wolf, who has been pitching in rehab recovering from his Tommy John surgery last year will likely be back soon, but who knows how effective he will be. I know that just by taking the mound he will be better than Floyd or Madson, though. Simply put, the rotation which was never strong to begin with, is in shambles.
GRADE D

Bullpen: Statistically, the bullpen is okay. In reality, they are not very good. Partially, it is not their fault because due to the bad starters they are overused so much. But the other half is that they are just bad. Tom Gordon has been a very good closer and addition, but that is about it. Arthur Rhodes has been inconsistent at best. Ryan Franklin is the worst pitcher in the majors, a washed up steroid user. Rheal Cormier has been okay. Geoff Geary started off bad, then was decent, and now seems to have lost it again. No lead (a rarity anymore) is ever safe with this rag-tag bunch.
GRADE C

Bench: For the first month and a half, they were the worst in the majors. There were three "major" off season moves to bolster the bench. The bad Alex Gonzalez (1) retired (the good one plays for Boston), I think he got about 2 or 3 hits this year for the team. Abraham Nunez (2) was signed to platoon with David Bell, but that is hard because Nunez is hitting under .170 and can barely get the ball out of the infield when he is at the plate. David Dellucci (3) has been coming on as of late. Coste has been getting better. Chris Roberson has been up and down between Philadelphia and Triple A, and he belongs in Scranton from my observations. Shane Victorino is the best bench player, but he has a nice ability to come up empty in the clutch, which goes right along with the rest of this team. They don't have a lot of speed on the bench either. Not a great bunch.
GRADE C-

Manager: As you might know, I started liking the Phillies last year to support Manager Charlie Manuel after he was run out of town in Cleveland. To put it nicely, Manuel is not well liked in Philadelphia, and really hasn't been since he was first hired. But he isn't the one who grounds into double plays, misses cut off men, and can't throw strikes. But if the team doesn't get it together soon, Manuel does not have much time left. Then I will have a decision to make as to whether or not I will stick with this team, which I probably will because I have been sucked in. Manuel is suspended for the first game of the doubleheader today for "aggressive actions" towards an umpire in a game two weeks ago against Tampa Bay.
GRADE A+

Broadcast Team: This applies to me since I listen to almost every game on the internet. Scott Graham is a great play by play man, and when he says "Put this one in the win column for the Fightin' Phils" after a win is always the highlight of my day. Larry Anderson, the former Phillies pitcher who provides color in the 4th through 9th inning is great as well. I liked Chris Wheeler last year, but I have soured on him this year. Newcomer Scott Franzke who handles the play by play in the 5th and 6th innings is bad. Franzke also handles the pre and post game shows. He took over for Tom McCarthy who did those duties last year, but left to do Mets radio games. A good move for him. The Voice of the Phillies, Harry Kalas, mainly does TV, but he does do the radio for the 4th. Always a treat to listen to.
GRADE B+

I am just numb after today's loss. I don't feel like even finishing this anymore. I don't know why I put myself through this. Last year the team had about the same record at this time, and they made a great run, falling one game short. It was great; I annoyed my co-workers every day my taping up photos of wins on my desk and having extreme mood swings which were dependent on the outcome of the previous night's contest. Maybe that is why I no longer work there. Either way, with the pitching the way it is, it doesn't look like the same can happen again. My heart says it will, but my head says it will not. This team has to find a way to survive.

(Note: This also posted on The Chief Source on May 11, 2006).

With this opportunity I thought about writing about various things; Philadelphia Phillies baseball, Gilmore Girls, and oil prices. But keeping in the spirit of both this site and my own, I decided to come full circle and discuss the 2006 Ohio Governor’s Matchup between Republican J. Kenneth Blackwell and Democrat Ted Strickland.

Conventional wisdom says that Strickland will win in November. He might; I say he starts as the favorite. But the race is not a sure win by any stretch for Strickland. The Ohio Governor’s mansion has not been occupied by a Democrat in 16 years.

The reason Blackwell will make this a close race is that he is running as a conservative in a conservative leaning state. Say what you will, but Ohio is still a Republican state. Blackwell needs all of the conservatives to turn out in November for him if he wants to win. That is what this is about. If he does get the turnout he needs, he will win. Republicans who vote in midterm elections know he is not like Bob Taft, and that will help him. The religious vote will vote Blackwell, despite Strickland being an ordained minister. Blackwell and the Ohio Republican establishment have always clashed, and that strangely enough is to his benefit now.

Blackwell also has the TEL (Tax Expenditure Limitation) on his side. He has spearheaded this bill, which limits government spending to 3.5% or the sum rate of inflation and population growth, whichever is higher. This type of budget reform is desperately needed by the state, which has seen its tax burden grow more than any other state since 1970. Many state officials don’t like the proposed constitutional amendment, but it will be popular among voters who are tired of this state’s out of control spending in Columbus. Critics say a similar measure didn’t work in Colorado, but it worked wonders there during a good economy, which is what we have now.

For his part, there is not a whole lot to say about Congressman Strickland. He is like John Kerry in a sense – a bland politician who inspires no one on the campaign trail. It seems like half of his ideas are ones that have been proposed by Governor Taft already through his “Third Frontier” program. 90% of the people who will vote for Strickland will vote for him because he is not a Republican, not because of anything he says or does, also similar to John Kerry. Strickland is not well known outside of his district; and who even knows how many people there could pick out a photo of him. Far more people know who Ken Blackwell is, and name ID is always a factor in races like this. Strickland’s current poll numbers are also inflated because he ran against an extremely weak opponent in the primary, while Blackwell’s was contested.

One more factor here is the race of Blackwell. Unfortunately, there are people who won’t vote for him because he is black, which is both wrong and stupid. I don’t vote for only white people; for instance if I did I would have voted for Petro last week. Blackwell will have to offset those losses by making up ground in the black community, and in his previous elections he has always outperformed the minority vote of other Republicans on the ballot – Bush won 16 percent of the black vote in 2004 in Ohio. In Blackwell's three previous statewide races, he has received between 30 percent and 40 percent of the black vote. If he gets anywhere near that this time, he wins. He won’t, but even to get 20% would be monumental in this race. Strickland would have to get some significant Republican crossover to counter that.

Strickland might yet be the right man in the right place at the right time; in any other recent election cycle he would stand absolutely no chance to beat Blackwell. 2006 is shaping up to be a poisonous cycle for Republicans, but if anyone can pull out a win in Ohio, it is Ken Blackwell. He will have the money he needs; the national party will pour money in as long as it looks winnable. My opinion, and my track record of handicapping elections in Ohio is quite good, is that Blackwell will start down in the polls by around 8% -10% and cut the lead to around 3-4% by September. Whether or not he will overcome the hurdle of getting disgruntled Republicans on board is up to him and his campaign. He has to get the people who supported his primary opponent, Jim Petro, into his camp. If he does that, I think he will pull off the upset. Strickland is at his high water mark I feel. He can go nowhere but down. And he will.

Maybe you recognize these legendary substitute teachers.....Lamancusa and Price with unidentified students also in the picture. Photo Credit: Bob A.


On a side note, I know it ihas been one month since my last "column." Expect to see new one this weekend or Monday.

NCAA Picks 2006

I have to say that even though I have watched more basketball than I have the past few years when I was in school, unemployed, or a combination of the two, it didn't make things any easier when it came to picks. I thought the seeding was especially atrocious this year by the selection committee. A lot of my enthusiasm has also been killed off by Ohio State's loss to Iowa in the Big Ten Championship as well (along with my will to live) . But year in ad year out (but not last year) I have been fairly accurate.

I usually like to wait until Wenesday to finalize my picks, but as previoulsy stated, I can't wait this year due to my fantasy baseball draft tomorrow. So here goes a region by region breakdown:

(Note: This is the first year in probably 15 I did not buy USA Today the Monday after the pairings were announced for the special NCAA section. In fact, it never even crossed my mind until today. I think this tells me what I need to know about the future of papers. Even the last two years I woke up early to go to the gas station to get one before they sold out).

Oakland

Overview: Definitely the weakest of the four regions. I don't think the top 4 seeds of Memphis, UCLA, Gonzaga, or Kansas scares anyone. I don't trust any #1 seed that is not from one of the power conferences. I don't know how anyone could.

Underrated: Arkansas. A real chance to knock off Memphis in Round 2 and go much farther. Bucknell won't catch anyone off guard this year, though they are a solid squad. Unfourtanetly, my two underrated teams matchup in the first round. I think either of these two teams could beat Memphis - and will.

Overrated: Memphis - A very weak #1; Gonzaga. Tough for them to win when they do not play at home against weak teams like San Francisco or other West Coast Conference Teams and get all the calls (or have their conference tournament at home). I have never been on the Gonzaga bandwagon. I actually cheer against them every year and would probably drive a semi truck full speed into their bandwagon. Their defense is suspect. I guess you could say I think that Gonzaga is "fools gold."

Best 1st Round Matchup: Pitt (5) vs. Kent State (12). Rematch of their great OT game from the 2002 Sweet 16. Kent usually plays well in the NCAAs and Pitt is a team that chronically chokes when it matters the most. I go with Kent.

Best Potential Matchup: Kent State v. Arkansas. Arkansas Coach Stan Heath against the team he coached for one year before promising not to abandon them and then doing so. This region is so bad that is the best I could do here. A nice local twist I suppose. Also, unrelated to the tournament, former Kent Coach Gary Waters in rumored to be interested in the Wright State job - which came open when they fired a former Ohio State assistant involved in their troubles. From every account I have ever heard, Waters is not the world's nicest man. FYI.

Other Notes: I don’t buy this "San Diego State will beat Indiana" garbage because of the turmoil at Indiana. I have seen San Diego state play more than once. They are not good. They got outplayed by a 14-18 Wyoming team in the MWC title game Saturday night. Indiana's players love Mike Davis and will play hard for him as long as they are still in. UCLA – Belmont play in the annual "one first round game that for some reason starts around 5 PM" that CBS never shows. Why do they always do that?

First Round Winners: Memphis, Arkansas, Kent State*, Kansas, Indiana, Gonzaga, Alabama*, UCLA. (* designates a lower seed winning)

Who Makes it Out: Toughest region to pick due to every team being so poor. I honestly haven't seen UCLA play; I've had the chance, just not the interest. I know it won't be Gonzaga. I think Memphis is overrated. Kansas is too young. By default it comes down to Arkansas and UCLA. And I have real trouble taking an 8 seed to the Final Four. UCLA is the pick, even though their coach Ben Howland usually comes up lame when it matters most.


Minneapolis

Overview: I think the 2nd easiest region. Villanova has not impressed me too much this year and the health of Allen Ray is obviously a concern. Ohio State would have been a #1 had they defeated Iowa on Sunday. Florida is so hot and cold - they are a tough team to figure out. I really like Boston College. They have burned me multiple times in previous tournaments, which is one thing that oddly makes them more appealing to me. I don't like how everyone is jumping on their bandwagon now - that usually means stay away.

Underrated: Nevada. An experienced tournament team who has been winning convincingly out west all season. Not a team anyone wants in their "pod."

Overrated: Villanova; Florida. Remember Florida was of the last three undefeated teams. They won the SEC Tournament but they got a good draw with LSU being hurt and playing a gross South Carolina team for the title.

Best 1st Round Matchup: Arizona (8) vs. Wisconsin (9). Battle of programs that have gone deep in tournaments in recent years but have had disappointing seasons. They play opposite types of games; I think Wisconsin will win the game in a close one. Arizona just has too many distractions off the court to win.

Best Potential Matchup: Villanova – Boston College. A battle of former Big East rivals. Two teams that are "tough." Would be a classic game I think. Almost everyone has the winner of this game winning the region. Not me.

Other Notes: Though I said Nevada was underrated, is there any less appealing 1st round game then Nevada – Montana? No. Would you watch that game if it was being played at your local high school and you got in for free? No.

First Round Winners: Villanova, Wisconsin*, Nevada, Boston College, Wisc.-Milwaukee*, Florida, Georgetown, Ohio State

Who Makes it Out: I know it won't be Villanova. My heart says Ohio State. My head says Boston College. I am going with Ohio State because I have been touting them all year. I can’t go weak now. Their senior leadership and sense of urgency carries them to Indianapolis.(By the way – Disclaimer – If Villanova watches the tape of how they got screwed by the officials last year vs. UNC and they get mad then all bets are off the table).


Washington DC

Overview: I thought this was the easiest bracket to pick. Connecticut is the clear cut best team in this region. When they play at their best no one can beat them. They have an easy path I feel to get to Indianapolis. A weak 2 seed, coupled with a very young 3 seed in UNC helps their cause.

Underrated: Illinois. If they were in another region I think I would pick them to go to the Final Four again. But unfortunately for them they got a lower than they should have seed and got stuck with UConn. If anyone takes down UConn it will be Illinois.

Overrated: Obviously Tennessee. A pathetic 2 seed. Lost 4 of their last 6, playing in a down SEC this year. Will be lucky to even make it to D.C. Can anyone explain how they pulled off this seed?

Best 1st Round Matchup: Kentucky (8) vs. UAB (9). Rematch of their 2004 meeting which UAB won and killed everyone’s bracket. UAB won't win again.

Best Potential Matchup: Michigan vs. North Carolina – a rematch of one last year's F inal Four games. A battle of two great coaches in Roy Williams and Tom Izzo.

Other Notes: I have a feeling about Seton Hall. I am not sure why. They are so inconsistent, but I think they win their first two games. Hard to ever pick against Michigan State in the Tournament. I am finding it difficult as well this year. George Mason is the only team this year to have a player suspended for the Tournament for punching an opposing player in the groin.

First Round Winners: Connecticut, Kentucky, Utah State*, Illinois (barely), Michigan State, North Carolina, Seton Hall*, and Tennessee.

Who Makes it Out: Tennessee goes down early, probably to The Hall. This Kentucky is not the Kentucky of old and they are no threat to UConn. Michigan State knocks off a young UNC team to face Connecticut in the Regional Final. Connecticut destroys them and goes on to Indy.


Atlanta

Overview: Duke once again stays close to home in Greensboro - have they ever gone out West? Ever? They always seem to play in one of the easier regions. This year is no exception to that trend and Duke looks like a good bet to go back to their 47th straight Final Four.

Overrated: Texas. If they were so good they never would have lost to Duke by 31, Tennessee by 17, and to Oklahoma State by 21. But then again, I doubted Texas in football this year. I don’t like them in basketball either; Syracuse. They went on a nice run in the Big East Tournament fueled by their coach’s profanity laced tirade, but they are poised for a quick NCAA exit. I like Texas A&M to top them in the First Round.

Underrated: Iowa. Hard to say a three seed is underrated, but I think they are. They are really balanced and play good defense. Iowa will have to overcome past tournament failures though.

Best 1st Round Matchup: George Washington (8) vs. UNC-Wilmington (9). Will GW have something to prove after being slighted and made an 8 seed? They will have to do it in the home state of the Seahawks in Greensboro. I like GW in this game. Pops is supposed to back in uniform for the game.

Best Potential Matchup: Duke vs. LSU. LSU seems to be a popular pick to beat Duke, but I don't see it actually happening. LSU makes too many critical mistakes to beat a team like Duke. I would like to be wrong on this one.

Other Notes: North Carolina State. Who could root for them in any sport, even if you went there or are an alumni. What a dumb school.

First Round Winners: Duke, GW, Texas A&M*, LSU, West Virginia, Iowa, Cal, and Texas.


Who Makes it Out: Duke. Hard to pick against them. If LSU beats them, look for them to advance to the Final Four. I don't see West Virginia making another deep run this year, though if someone else in this bracket can do it, it could be them. And only those two teams have a chance to advance if it is not Duke.

Final Four: In one National Semifinal, Duke dismantles UCLA. In the other game, a rematch of the 1999 Semifinal (which now "never happened") Connecticut once again outlasts Ohio State. And then history repeats itself again and Duke cannot top Connecticut in the title game and UConn is crowned the champion of college basketball.(The NCAA has yet to make take the OSU 1999 Final Four off their website – I just checked). Also I pick every game correctly and win $1 million from ESPN.

So in Summary: UCLA, UConn, Ohio State, and Duke. Connecticut over Duke to win it all.

AND in honor of my friend Dallas, I pick Hampton to win tonight’s play-in game over Monmouth. Hampton is one of his favorite teams. But the play in game is gay and should be abolished.

Good and Bad of the Torino (or Turin) Olympics

No, the Olympics aren't over yet, but they might as well be. But since my spirit was broken today with the USA Hockey loss to Finland, I may as well do my recap now. I know most people haven't watched much if it all. People look at me like I am a loser for watching any of the events. That's fine. I remember when it was cool to like the Winter Olympics back in 2002; everyone wanted to support their country then and cheer for them. Now the media tells you that the Olympics are not the cool thing anymore. Okay.

But honestly how can I be expected to avoid the internet and news for an entire day so I can go home and watch hours of events that have long since concluded? Of course, I cant. Of course it is not realistic and that is why the ratings have been so bad across the board. I wouldn't watch the NCAA Tournament if it was running on tape delay on CBS. I would not watch really anything if I already knew what was going to happen. Why would I? Apparently I am not alone in that thinking. But I have, just to write this. Here is the good and bad so far (and all I am going to watch).

Bad: Basically the entire NBC announcing team. Whatever happen to the people they used to get from sports stations around the country (like Jim Donovan of Channel 3 in Cleveland) to do lesser events? Now it seems like they went into random pizza places in Italy to recruit announcers three weeks ago. There is no sort of eligibility standard that I can tell. They may as well have hired me for color commentary on the skeleton, since I have never done it, know nothing about it, and don't like cold weather. And have no previous experience broadcasting sporting events (besides the one time I did "Just Like Joe" at the Cavs game - fake announcing the Cavs game for a half sitting near the real team announcer, Joe Tait).

NBC: Are you a fan of Alpine Skiing?
Random Pizzeria Employee: No.
NBC: Okay! You seem perfect for the finals in prime time! What size NBC winter coat do you wear?

If the announcers in America are this bad, I can't even imagine how bad they are for some countries.

Good: Al Trautwig made me want to take up cross country skiing with his description of the action and Mike Emrick somehow kept his voice calling upwards of 4 hockey games a day. (His partner John Davidson was way worse than in 2002, and sounds much more Canadian than I remember). Emrick is the best hockey announcer, period. The curling announcer was great- he was just say things like "that shot was one of the worst I have ever seen, or "this is terrible." Great honesty, which is something you rarely get anymore.

Bad: Curling overall. Not nearly as "cool" to watch in 2006 as in 2002. I think I understand it less now than I did 4 years ago. It really is a stupid sport if you really think about it. Plus if I have to hear one more person say they could be an Olympic curler I think I will hang myself. No, you couldn't. Or if I have to hear people say "why don't they just make bowling or Monopoly an Olympic sport if Curling is." Note: Bowling very likely will be a varsity sport for high schoolers in Ohio next year.

Good: Hockey, cross country skiing and speed skating, and thats it. Hockey overall is obviously terrible, but for whatever reason Olympic hockey is exciting (Men's only - should go without saying). It comes through every four years. Every game seems to be competitive. Just today I caught myself watching Czech Republic - Slovakia. Like I said before, the cross country skiing is really fun to watch. It makes me almost like the cold. Why is Norway so good at it? Why would they have an advantage over anyone else? Why do they care so much about their "rivalry" with Italy in the cross country relay?

Bad: The only time I saw people all at once turn to the Olympics was at a bar when every person looked when they knew that Lindsey Jacobellis wipeout in snowboarding cross was coming up (when she decided to show off and ended up crashing and costing herself the gold). Snowboard cross looks like video games. Only in real life. Why do the skiing courses seem like pure ice? Has anyone else noticed this? Where is the actual snow? Speaking of that, events are so much better to watch when it is actually snowing out. Not enough of that in 2006.

Good: How bad Bode Miller did. What a jerk-off. Another Nike flop reminiscent of the Dan vs. Dave hype for 1992 (though nothing will ever top that). As of this writing he has one more race. Seems clear he won't medal. Also it is still fun to cheer against Russia. I sometimes wish they still wore the red CCCP uniforms. That would inspire the American athletes I think.

Bad (for the viewer): Every other media outlet ruining the events by flashing the results as much as possible without any sort of warning. NBC also by the way should be ashamed of themselves for interrupting the coverage of the second Sunday of the Games for multiple hours to go with the Daytona 500. That is awful. Another thing: No My Name is Earl of The Office because of the Olympics.

Good (for the above media outlets): By doing this, they boosted their ratings (American Idol doubled the Olympics in the Nielsens).

Bad: The "Flying Tomato," all male figure skaters, Jim Lampley, Apolo Anton Ohno, and Susan Sarandon walking in the Opening Ceremony for undetermined reasons. I was not aware she was a competitor.

Good: Sasha Cohen, Tanith Beblin, Cassie Johnson.

Bad: I thought I had a ton more to write about the Olympics. I thought I had watched more than I have. I guess I didn't. Maybe I don't like the Winter Games better than the Summer Games after all.

Good: I am done with this.


By the way, have you seen the cities who bid for the 2014 Winter Games:

Almaty, Kazakhstan; Borjomi, Georgia; Jaca, Spain; PyeongChang, South Korea; Salzburg, Austria; Sochi, Russia; and Sofia, Bulgaria.

That is the real list. I think some of those cities might be fake. Jaca, Spain? Hmmm. More tape delay Olympics it looks like. If they are even televised anymore.